Welcome to everyone who found the site. Whether you believe its random or you believe its not. Here is some evidence on the site. Based on e-mail from readers I have gotten I will attempt to make this a better all around poker site. Sure beats will still be discussed but maybe we can get some blog reader tourneys going or have blog readers invite others and share there own tourney wins and losses via blogs. Just send me an e-mail I will attempt to create a network of poker blogs.

Believers and.........Non-Believers

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Variance and the online poker myth

I have read quite a few articles lately and even received an email reply back from Americas Cardroom when I bubbled in a tourney holding quad Kings that Variance is the reason for the bad beats. Variance is the go to answer for those people that claim that online poker is not rigged. They say "your just angry because you go a bad beat" or "if you cant handle the beats then dont play poker". The thing is the "variance" they mention doesnt stop. If this were true "variance" then eventually you would run into good variance and win every coin flip and every dominated hand you play.

However, we all know this is not happening. So I got curious the past few months and got a tracker. I can confirm now that all the major online poker sites are clearly and completed rigged for American players. All the players that talk a big game online and act like they make so much money and claim "its not rigged you cant handle the beats". Well, I put those players in pokertracker to see if they have actually made money.

I did not find one player who was actually positive.

Let me type that one more time so it sinks in.....NOT ONE PLAYER HAD MADE A PROFIT.

So I started putting more and more names in, no one has made money. People type in the chat that they take 2-300 bucks off a month. Yeah, well when you lose 4-500 bucks a month just because you take the money off doesnt mean you make money. This is the hard truth, it really is.

Where is our money going? If no one is making money, and we all seem to be losing money, then where is all our money?

The only thing I can figure is that it is all going to the house players and back to the house. This is the only logical answer. If you have any other opinions as to where our money is going please let me know.

As always here are some beats that I love:

Aces vs 89 all in preflop. Yes PREFLOP. Guy called an 89. Why would someone do that? I saved this hand as it marks exactly seven times in a row that pocket aces have lost on this site all in preflop. I wonder how long this streak can continue?

This next beat is on the bubble practically. Two people from the money. This is the hand I sent to the site to see what there response is. I actually typed in the chat box that the guy had an underpair and would hit his one or two outer. I typed this at least 45 seconds before the cards were dealt as another player let his time bank run down. If this is truly random then how can I state when I will lose and what cards will be dealt? Someone please tell me this? Its because its not random. Its all programmed and no matter how you play you will lose.
By the way the hand below and the hand above occurred within about 3 hands of each other. Making the odds even more improbable that this happens randomly.


Gábor Budai said...

I like your blog and thanks for it. This test you did realy interesing.
Do you plan do it on other online poker rooms?
Do youn think there is any room which isn't rigged?
Thanks for the answers keep it up!

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Juhty mirzza said...

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ripped off my AC and FTP said...

There is no doubt that America's Card Room employs BOTs and House Players. There are constant beats from players who have been "on the site" for 2 months or less and yet they always get hands that either dominate your 10 big blind shove or hit ridiculous runner runner suckouts. Also, they use the typical Big Stack wins every hand he/she plays approach to ending tourneys like clockwork so you loose your buy in which includes the fee you paid to the house to play, and sometimes multiple fees in rebuy events. Of course the site always claims they have no reason to rig the deal...yeah no reason except making a shit pile of money. And since we have seen clearly how UB and FTP were lying cheating and stealing from their players how could anyone seriously defend any of these crooks? If you think there is a fair deal you are a moron and I'd love to play against you in a brick and mortar tournament.

ripped off my AC and FTP said...

Check out this hand history from Today at ACR...on the stone bubble, the chip leader has won 6 of the last 8 hands...I shove QQ and get called by his J 4 offsuit...what do you thinks happens ???

Game started at: 2014/9/3 13:45:45
Game ID: 313222429 150/300 $25 GTD - On Demand, Table 6 (Hold'em)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: fats51 (1660).
Seat 2: mreesej (3080).
Seat 3: ajagerson123 (5277).
Seat 7: MillionarieDan (18843).
Seat 8: caniflopit (3649).
Seat 9: Eljeffe63 (4070).
Player ajagerson123 ante (30)
Player MillionarieDan ante (30)
Player caniflopit ante (30)
Player Eljeffe63 ante (30)
Player fats51 ante (30)
Player mreesej ante (30)
Player ajagerson123 has small blind (150)
Player MillionarieDan has big blind (300)
Player ajagerson123 received a card.
Player ajagerson123 received a card.
Player MillionarieDan received a card.
Player MillionarieDan received a card.
Player caniflopit received a card.
Player caniflopit received a card.
Player Eljeffe63 received card: [Qc]
Player Eljeffe63 received card: [Qs]
Player fats51 received a card.
Player fats51 received a card.
Player mreesej received a card.
Player mreesej received a card.
Player caniflopit folds
Player Eljeffe63 allin (4040)
Player fats51 folds
Player mreesej folds
Player ajagerson123 folds
Player MillionarieDan calls (3740)
*** FLOP ***: [2d Jc 4s]
*** TURN ***: [2d Jc 4s] [3d]
*** RIVER ***: [2d Jc 4s 3d] [5d]
------ Summary ------
Pot: 8410. Rake 0
Board: [2d Jc 4s 3d 5d]
Player fats51 does not show cards.Bets: 30. Collects: 0. Loses: 30.
Player mreesej does not show cards.Bets: 30. Collects: 0. Loses: 30.
Player ajagerson123 does not show cards.Bets: 180. Collects: 0. Loses: 180.
*Player MillionarieDan shows: Two pairs. Js and 4s [Jd 4c]. Bets: 4070. Collects: 8410. Wins: 4340.
Player caniflopit does not show cards.Bets: 30. Collects: 0. Loses: 30.
Player Eljeffe63 shows: One pair of Qs [Qc Qs]. Bets: 4070. Collects: 0. Loses: 4070.
Game ended at: 2014/9/3 13:46:24

That's right...you guessed it...he flops 2 pair no problem as an 88/12 dog all in preflop for 1/3 of his stack...and it holds of course...I am busted on the bubble when I should be in top 3 places.

This site is so rigged for their house players which they setup with new accounts every month its just a big fucking joke.

Nazareth said...

Variance variance variance- Yeah right- try playing FTP play chips- watch as you RARELY win with hands like AA AK AQ- Watch as you get called almost every single time by some donk with 8-4 offsuit as they completely miss the flop and shove all in (apparently hoping to scare you off the flop) and then watch time after time after time as they hit an 8 on turn, and a 4 on the river.

Does this happen In real games once in awhile? Sure, you betcha- Does it happen round after round after round? Nope- Variance claims go right out the window when it keeps happening round after round after round-

"Oh you're just upset, and you're just remembering the bad beats only"

Well DUH! Of COURSE we're remembering the bad beats because they don't freakin stop- it's pretty freakin sad when you are holding QQ, make a large bet, have someone call you- flop comes 2-4-6, and you just get a sinking feeling that you just got shoved all in by someone who called you with a 5- probably a 5-j offsuit and watch in expectation as the 3 lands on the river- Pretty freakin sad when you can't even confidently play your monster hands because you know damn well that the ONLY person to have called you large preflop bet was the donk who WILL hit their straight- their flush, their quads (despite NOT holding pocket pair) etc etc etc

This isn't poker- this is an excersize in depression- thinking that no matter how good you play, you simply are not going to win

I think though that one of the commentor's comemnts in previosu post is correct- that IP addresses get 'targetted' because as a test- I made some dummy accounts, some 'donk accounts' where I play just like the other donks- shoving all in when completely missing the flop- just like they do- I go all in preflop with crap cards- if someone raises preflop- I shove my stack with crap- etc etc etc- Nope- still don't win- so no matter how I play- it doesn't matter- the suckouts just keep happening- with a large majority of the suckouts coming on the river- Even IF I hit two pair on flop- once in awhile I'll win- even go on a mini-streak from time to time- playing horrible- but then it's right back to unbelievable constant bad beats-

"We're just remembering only the bad beats"? You bet we are because they don't freakin stop! NO matter how you play! IF you IP is targeted- there is nothing you can do to stop the constant bad beats- period! It will get so bad, that your flushes WILL be beat by higher flushes, straights beat by higher straights, even quads beat by higher quads- and yea, these things OCCASIONALLY happen in live real poker, but they don't keep happening over and over again while playing for a couple of hours- it just doesn't stop-

Do people go through OCCASIONAL unlucky steaks? You betcha- do these streaks of unbelievable bad beats continue month after month after month with no freakin end in sight? Nope- Unless of course you paly on full tilt poker!

Variance? Yeah right! We're not idiots!

1 BiG BaBy said...

I am in 100% agreement with Nazareth and other commenters. I knew in my heart, and the queasy feeling in my stomach today after losing over and over again, that it's rigged. Every time they download files to my machine I chuckle to myself "These must be the loser files". Interesting theory on the ip address. I'll have to do some investigating on that. I can switch address's through vpn.

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