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Welcome to everyone who found the site. Whether you believe its random or you believe its not. Here is some evidence on the site. Based on e-mail from readers I have gotten I will attempt to make this a better all around poker site. Sure beats will still be discussed but maybe we can get some blog reader tourneys going or have blog readers invite others and share there own tourney wins and losses via blogs. Just send me an e-mail I will attempt to create a network of poker blogs.

Believers and.........Non-Believers

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Thats right I called it.....Full Tilt is Bankrupt

Dont expect to get your money back. I called this two weeks ago. Here are some links. The main question is what did they do with our money? A company should only be allowed to invest PROFITS. Not the players buy ins. This is absolutely ridiculous. I hope they go after the owners of the site as well. Howard Lederer behind bars. That would make me feel absolutely great!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42906061/ns/business-us_business/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/full-tilt-filing-bankruptcy-monday-1037341/

http://www.rgc2005.com/2011/05/full-tilt-broke-absolute-and-ultimate.html

So now that we have that out of the way. US Players will probably not be able to get their funding back. Howard Lederer is hiding in some hole somewhere outside of the United States. He should, he is an absolute thief. Full Tilt took our money as soon as we deposited it. Essentially, you were never going to get paid. So much for the poker sites make so much money they dont have to cheat theory.

If you won a large tournament you would have never received your money. If you did, they would have paid you with other peoples deposits. Forget them. Lock them up. What they did was illegal. Speaking of......

A quick article for you to review:

A major university recently completed a study of the on-line poker site FullTiltPoker.Net, the “free” side of Full Tilt Poker.


http://www.railbirds.com/blog/335777/the-truth-about-fulltilt-repost.html

Over the course of the one-year study students entered into, but did not play in, over 10,000 9-person Sit & Go No Limit Hold’em 250 (play money) tournaments. Player stats were recorded, and later analyzed. Over 57,000 individual hands made up the study sample.



The study revealed that the dealing of cards at Full Tilt Poker is not random. The site has a tendency to deal a statistically abnormal amount of “big” hands, including straights, flushes, full houses, four of a kind, etc.



The odds of “hitting” a particular hand when seven cards are dealt from a 52-card deck are easily calculated. We won’t go into the gory mathematical details, but you are certainly invited to look them up for yourself if you don’t believe us.



For example, when seven cards are dealt from a 52-card deck, the odds of hitting a royal flush are approximately 500,000 to 1. That’s why you don’t see very many of them in the real world, let alone get one yourself. Yet, on Full Tilt we saw a royal flush in approximately 1 out of every 4,432 hands dealt, over 1,000 times as often as statistical probability would dictate. Several of our players were dealt more than one royal flush over the course of the study.



Oddly, a non-royal straight flush came up in 1 out of 7,203 hands during our study. With a random deal, the probability of hitting any kind of non-royal straight flush is approximately 83,000 to 1. That probability is multiplied by a factor of 10 at Full Tilt.



The most common winning hand in our tournaments at Full Tilt was 2 pairs. It came up on average 1 out of every 13 hands, about twice as often as statistical probability would dictate. With a random seven-card deal from a 52-card deck, a 2-pair hand should come up every 21 hands on average.



Likewise, all the other “big hands” occurred far more often on Full Tilt than one would expect from a truly random (and honest) deal. A straight came up in 1 out of every 54 hands dealt. Normal odds for a straight are 1 in every 283 seven-card hands. Likewise, a flush came up in 1 out of every 54 hands, the same as straights. In the real world, we would expect to see a flush in approximately 1 out of every 500 hands, or about half as often as a straight. On Full Tilt straights and flushes come up with almost equal frequency, yet another statistical anomaly.



Interestingly, the most common straights on Full Tilt are the ace high straight and the five high straight. They came up more than four times as often as any other kind of straight. This, in and of itself, represents another glaring statistical anomaly.



Hands with three-of-a-kind were observed in 1 out of every 27 hands, almost twice the 1 out of 47 hands one expects to see in the real world.

A full house came up on average 1 in every 71 hands dealt. This far exceeds the 1 in every 694 hands you will see in the real world.



Hands with four-of-a-kind occurred on Full Tilt in one 1 of every 281 hands, far more often then the 1 out of every 4,166 hands one expects from an random deal.



We can only conclude that Full Tilt does not deal cards randomly, but is programmed to produce big hands. Perhaps this makes for more “exciting” play, but it is less than honest.

7 comments:

Learn Poker said...

You presented the facts, and I'm just here to speculate. I won't be that apologetic crying FT being a victim, and I wouldn't say anything remotely negative about them either. I've had my own shares of victories and failures at FT and Pokerstars, and during that long run, they paid me at full, so no qualms here.

I hope these problems get fixed. And if FT's system is verified as rigged, then I hope the law deals with it.

learn poker

Maky Dol said...

Full Tilt Poker Website Shout Down June 2011 !!!

Retribution said...

I respect that you seem to have put some thought into this and that you attempted to lay out the facts in a concise manner.

The fact is though, that to come to an actual solid conclusion, you need a sample size of more than 57,000 hands. Experts suggest that a sample size of approximately 1,000,000 hands minimum is required.

The reason for this is due to the natural variance of poker, something any player should understand.

Consider this, if the flop comes and you hit top 2 pair vs someones flush draw, you are a 68% favorite to win. That means over 1,000,000 hands, you will win approximately 680,000 times.

Over a sample size of over 57,000, it's entirely possible that the flush will hit more than it should due to the variance of probability.
The larger the sample size, the higher the probability the results will reflect the true probability.

1317phil said...

I'm a little confused by this. You say that it is based on over 10,000 tournaments and your sample size is 57,000 hands. This is only 5.7 hands per tournament - what happened to the rest of the hands?

Paradox said...

www.thebiglaydown.blogspot.com

2adsy2 said...

This is completely true. You have to imagine this, 6000 runners in the WSOP takes 8-10 days to get to the final table. If online poker sites did not incite action more often and (unfortunately) cause more suck outs a 10000 runner tourney could take 2 weeks. I primarily play live and there is no substitute and while i feel the study is spot on you can simply be more diciplined.I am quite accustomed to laying down large pockets and do so succesfully.

shalini said...

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